You Have to Choose…
Are we “flattening the curve” or are we cutting the top right off the curve? These are two different things. Are we slowing the spread so as to avoid inundating our medical facilities and forcing triage of ventilators, letting all or most be exposed and letting those die that will die and letting those that will survive do so? Or are we “nipping this thing in the bud” entirely, saving huge swathes of the population from even initial exposure at some unimagined social and economic cost? Are we pounding this rising ball of dough flatter, spreading it out while keeping the same maximum volume, or are we freezing the yeast so as to avoid the rise in the first place?
What if you had to choose? Just you. Choose, for the whole world. What if it was this simple? It is likely that it is not quite this simple, but it is unlikely that you will have to choose for the whole world. It will be a societal decision. Policy will follow society, as it should. Society will follow science and statistics and public health estimates. Society will also follow the collective individual will. This is where you get to choose. Identify, for yourself, what your individual choice would be, if you were solely in charge. We’re all better at public health now than we were a month ago. We “get it” more and more all the time. Own that and make your choice.
To do so, run through the following mental exercise.
First, if only for the exercise, trust the models, calculations and public health professionals. Allow for uncertainty, but trust when they say that it would be a total mess if we do nothing. Also, it is theoretically possible that, if we could wait it out, universally and globally sequestered until no more are infected or a vaccine is ready and universally administered, we could essentially stop this thing. Somewhere in the middle is what we are doing now. Say there’s the “zero” option, the “middle” option, and the “infinity” option.
It’s too late to “do nothing”. Take the zero option right off the table. Society is doing something, even if you aren’t. Most of us are doing something about slowing the spread of this coronavirus, even if it isn’t our choice.
Let’s say we then have two discrete choices; middle and infinity. We can do whatever it takes to squash this thing -or- we can “flatten the curve” to extend the effectiveness of our existing and expanding medical resources but ultimately let most or all get exposed with time.
It seems that “whatever it takes” to entirely squash this thing includes full to nearly-full sequestration and waiting for a vaccine. I don’t see how, if fully squashing it is the societal choice, any nonessential business or fundamental social life could return to operation before a vaccine is universally administered. Try taking this mental exercise a step further. What if we knew we all could make it, socially and financially, through the year (plus) of sequestration that totally squashing this thing would require? In some fantastical turn of events, we instantly and universally gain great confidence in economics and social health and see that we’ll be fine after a year on “pause”. Do we do it? Do we pause it all until this threat passes? How big a threat, next time, is required to push that same pause button?
On the other hand, we could resume social and economic activity on a graduated program that results in infection rates roughly matching recovery rates, so as to, essentially, free up a ventilator for every new patient that needs one. I don’t see how we do this without taking on many, many more fatalities. I don’t see how we do this without every person on earth facing the prospect of contracting this gnarly bug. I don’t see how we do this without acknowledging the fundamental mortality of the human condition.
We don’t know everything about this. Not now, and maybe not ever. But we do have to pick, collectively, how we want to respond. What we see together, and what we decide to do, together, is the amalgam of our individual values. We can’t reach a societal consensus without clear individual reflection. We’ve already decided that we won’t do nothing about the coronavirus. But we do get to choose, all together, whether we buckle down and squash it or whether we don’t. I know where I stand...